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"It was really just a question of time, " said Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Beijing University.
“這真的只是個(gè)時(shí)間早晚問(wèn)題，”北京大學(xué)金融學(xué)教授邁克爾·佩蒂斯（MichaelPettis）表示。
Pettis of Peking University says China's economic problems are just beginning rather than beginning to end.
北京大學(xué)的佩蒂斯教授認(rèn)為，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的麻煩只是剛剛開(kāi)始，而不是剛剛結(jié)束。
Like Michael Pettis, I think the chance of a full-blown trade war at this point becomes pretty high.
就像MichaelPettis說(shuō)的，我認(rèn)為如果那樣的話，全面的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)的可能性很高。
It all adds up to less money in the pockets of consumers, said Peking University economist Michael Pettis.
北京大學(xué)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家邁克爾.派迪斯說(shuō)：“所有這些都使消費(fèi)者的錢袋干癟。”
Then, Pettis reckons, we'll see another bust, followed by years of below par economic growth as domestic consumption starts to recover.
然后，佩蒂斯認(rèn)為，股市將再次崩盤，隨后在國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇之際，經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)多年的低增長(zhǎng)。
Michael Pettis: Anyone can and should be a teacher, whether or not he works in a school.
邁克爾·佩蒂斯：任何人都可以而且應(yīng)該成為老師，不管他是不是在學(xué)校工作。
"We are passed the point when there were easy solutions, " says Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Beijing University.
北京大學(xué)金融系教授邁克爾-佩蒂斯（MichaelPettis）表示：“我們已過(guò)了臨界點(diǎn)，目前沒(méi)有簡(jiǎn)單的解決辦法。”
Pettis says China may be forced into a one-off revaluation of the yuan, perhaps by as much as 20 percent.
佩蒂斯說(shuō)，中國(guó)有可能被迫以百分之20的幅度，一次性重新估價(jià)人民幣幣值。
However, Pettis and others said while the parasite nosema cezanne may be a factor, it cannot be the sole cause.
然而，Pettis和其他人說(shuō)，也許寄生微粒子蟲(chóng)是一個(gè)因素，但肯定不是唯一的原因。
Michael Pettis of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management has argued that they cannot be.
北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院的邁克爾?佩蒂斯（MichaelPettis）認(rèn)為它們不能。
The price is ultimately borne by savers by way of government-directed, artificially-low deposit rates, as Pettis frequently points out.
這些成本最終將由儲(chǔ)戶承擔(dān)，通過(guò)政府指導(dǎo)的、人為設(shè)定的低利率來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。
Michael Pettis: My students at Tsinghua remind me in many ways of my students at Columbia.
邁克爾·佩蒂斯：我在清華的學(xué)生在很多方面都使我想起了我在哥倫比亞大學(xué)的學(xué)生。
"To get consumption to surge, " said Mr. Pettis, the Peking University lecturer, "you need to stop taking money from the household sector. "
“要想讓消費(fèi)規(guī)模激增，就不要再從老百姓口袋里拿錢了，”北大教授佩蒂斯說(shuō)。
it looks impressive but Pettis believes this extraordinary expansion across China will eventually destroy investors' returns.
這片景象令人印象深刻，可佩蒂斯認(rèn)為，遍及中國(guó)各地的非凡擴(kuò)張景象終將使投資者血本無(wú)歸。
Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University, says America found itself in the same bind back in 1929.
北京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授佩蒂斯（MichaelPettis）表示，1929年的美國(guó)也發(fā)現(xiàn)自己處于類似處境。
But the truth is, as Pettis says, "it isn't going to happen. "
但是事實(shí)依然如同佩蒂斯所說(shuō)：“這一切不會(huì)變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。”
and low interest rates have penalized individual savers while helping businesses borrow, Pettis points out.
低利率政策在幫助企業(yè)貸款時(shí)懲罰了儲(chǔ)蓄者。
Armed with this knowledge, said Pettis, bee experts are increasingly focused on boosting bees' general health to prevent population crashes.
掌握這些知識(shí)后，研究蜜蜂的專家們會(huì)更注重提高蜂群的整體健康水平，防止其數(shù)量暴跌。
Michael Pettis is an associate professor of finance at Peking University.
邁克爾.佩蒂斯是北京大學(xué)金融學(xué)教授。
As Pettis says, "every six months for the past several years we've heard the same thing: " China's going to take its money elsewhere.
正如佩蒂斯所說(shuō)：“過(guò)去幾年間每半年我們就能聽(tīng)到同樣的聲音：”中國(guó)要把錢投到其他地方了。
"I only wish we had a single agent causing all the declines, " Pettis says.
“我只是希望蜂群衰竭失調(diào)的誘因是單一的，”佩蒂斯說(shuō)。
Second, as Pettis again reminds us, "you cannot run a current account surplus unless you are also a net exporter of capital. "
其次，正如佩蒂斯再次提醒我們的：“除非是資本凈輸出國(guó)，否則不可能出現(xiàn)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目盈余。”
But Pettis suggests a crunch is not far away and we'll see it first in what he calls "debt capacity" .
但佩蒂斯認(rèn)為，一場(chǎng)危機(jī)已為時(shí)不遠(yuǎn)，我們會(huì)首先在他所稱的“借債能力”上看到這一點(diǎn)。
Jeff Pettis: These bees have multiple viruses. They have multiple bacterial infections.
杰夫?佩蒂斯：這些蜜蜂受各種病毒的侵?jǐn)_，被各種細(xì)菌感染。
Jeff Pettis: We ask a lot of them. We move them from crop to crop to pollinate and to feed on things that may not be ideal diet.
杰夫佩蒂斯：我們追蹤了很多蜜蜂，將它們從一個(gè)莊稼地轉(zhuǎn)移到另一個(gè)，讓它們在不同地里授粉，喂給它們算不上理想的食物。
The thesis advanced by Prof Pettis is that a forced investment strategy will normally end with such a bump.
佩蒂斯提出的論點(diǎn)是，強(qiáng)制性投資策略通常都會(huì)突然終止。
It's hard to tease apart factors and outcomes, Pettis says.
佩蒂斯表示，研究人員很難一一梳理這些因素和結(jié)果。
Economists such as Xie and Pettis warn that governments must move carefully as they wind down stimulus packages.
謝國(guó)忠和佩蒂斯等經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都警告，各國(guó)政府在削減經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃時(shí)都必須小心謹(jǐn)慎。
"My feeling is that China can't help other countries in the region, " says Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University.
“我的感覺(jué)是，中國(guó)不能幫助所在地區(qū)的其它國(guó)家”，北京大學(xué)法籍教授邁克爾·佩蒂斯表示。
Mr Pettis believes there is a growing divergence between productivity growth and wage growth in China.
貝蒂斯先生認(rèn)為中國(guó)生產(chǎn)力的提高和薪資增長(zhǎng)的差異愈加明顯。
Jeff Pettis: What's unusual is that they're dying in such high numbers and so rapidly, so it's just this dramatic depopulation .
杰夫?佩蒂斯：蜜蜂死亡的速度如此之快，數(shù)量如此之大，是不正常的。這簡(jiǎn)直是戲劇性毀滅。
Michael Pettis: I think this is a common sense.
邁克爾·佩蒂斯：我想這是一個(gè)常識(shí)。
Michael Pettis: I think it is great for kids to learn many things but sometimes I think we confuse learning and studying.
邁克爾·佩蒂斯：我想讓小孩子多學(xué)點(diǎn)東西是很好的，但我想有時(shí)我們把學(xué)習(xí)和攻讀的概念混淆了。
Second, Pettis is deeply suspicious of fund managers who reckon they can find value stocks in China.
其次，佩蒂斯對(duì)認(rèn)為能夠在中國(guó)找到價(jià)值股票的基金經(jīng)理深表懷疑。
Michael Pettis is a professor of finance at the Guanghua School of Peking University and a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment
邁克爾?佩蒂斯（MichaelPettis）是北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院金融學(xué)教授、卡內(nèi)基基金會(huì)（CarnegieEndowment）高級(jí)會(huì)員
Michael Pettis is a finance professor at Peking university and chief strategist for Shenyin Wanguo Securities (HK)
本文作者是北京大學(xué)（Pekinguniversity）金融學(xué)教授、申銀萬(wàn)國(guó)證券（ShenyinWanguoSecurities）駐香港首席策略師
Michael Pettis is a finance professor at the Guanghua Management School
邁克爾·佩蒂斯是光華管理學(xué)院的金融學(xué)教授
